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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and longtime underperformers rising in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still