A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
